Annotated Bibliography: Climate Change, Childhood Nutrition, and Future Outcomes

Erika Hansen

DATA 150

Word Count: 2,184

Link to Bibliography in Google Docs because format is a bit weird on GitHub

References Alderman, H., Hoddinott, J., & Kinsey, B. (2006). Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition. Oxford Economic Papers, 58(3), 450–474. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpl008

This article sought to find a link between preschool nutritional status of children, measured by height, in rural Zimbabwe and other health and educational outcomes as young adults. Zimbabwe proved to be a useful model, as during the years of initial interviews the country experienced alternating periods of relative prosperity, a brutal civil war, and intense droughts. These “shocks” allowed researchers to pinpoint times of instability, and therefore food insecurity, and compare it to children in the same household born during different times. The researchers obtained their data using longitudinal surveys to gather information from 400 households in 20 towns in rural Zimbabwe about 680 children. The collection was labor-intensive, as the first surveys were executed in 1983 and continued through 2001. At each household, the scientists measured the height and weight of the preschool child. When they retired as the child was a young adult, they measured the child again and noted the number of grades in school completed and the age at which they started school. After all the necessary interviews, the researchers analyzed the data, comparing preschool height, grande complete, and age when started school. They also controlled for a variety of confounding variables like household resources available for investment in education and genetics (in regards to height). Overall, the researchers found that the children they interviewed had a lower height-for-age in relation to the international standard for well-nourished children. Consequently, there is no question that there are issues with undernourished children in rural Zimbabwe. More specifically, it was found that a higher height given age measurement as a preschooler is associated with increased height, more grades of schooling complete, and an earlier starting age for school in the future. This points to an association between preschool nutrition and attainment in school in this population of children. In fact, the researchers estimate from their data that the average child in the study experiences a lifetime loss of earnings of around 14% when compared to their international nutritional counterparts. In short, there seems to be a tangible linkage between early childhood nutritional status, education, and future outcomes. This development question truly illustrates the interconnected nature of addressing problems in developing nations, because international organizations have explicit aims to improve nutrition in children as well as education. Taking these researchers’ conclusions into account, it may be possible to achieve both these goals with a single approach.

Bakhtsiyarava, M., Grace, K., & Nawrotzki, R. J. (2018). Climate, Birth Weight, and Agricultural Livelihoods in Kenya and Mali. American Journal of Public Health, 108(S2), S144–S150. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2017.304128

As the title signifies, this article seeks to find a relationship between variations in the climate and birth weight in societies of cash croppers, food croppers, and pastoralists in Kenya and Mali. The researchers are mainly concerned with the development of more climatically resilient communities and food insecurity, as measured by birth rate. The researchers coalesced a variety of data sets, like the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) Program, which tracks demographic, health, and nutrition in underdeveloped parts of the world. For climatic data, land use, and crop field, the researcher consulted the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS)-Terra. Agricultural data was acquired through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which provides frequent imaging of areas allowing close tracking of vegetation and crops. Therefore, one can track the effect differences in rainfall and temperature can have on vegetation. The scientists overlaid this data in order to compare reported birth weights from DHS with rates of vegetation growth and climatic data at the time. It was assumed that the weather conditions in the 12 months prior to birth would have the most impact on food availability and birth weight. Consequently, the climatic data included the average monthly rainfall and the number of months the average maximum temperature was over 35℃ (the accepted definition of a heatwave). The researchers also split the data corresponding to the predominant livelihood of people in the area into three categories, as there were different correlations amongst the categories. The first is cash cropping, in which farmers grow food and sell it for money, then food cropping, in which farmers subsist on the food they grow alone, and pastoralists, who nomadically raise livestock. The scientists discovered that food croppers are most sensitive to changes in climate, likely due to the fact they lack industrial agricultural machinery and techniques. They found a negative correlation between birth weight and temperature and a positive correlation between birth rate and rainfall. A similar relation was found regarding the cash croppers but it is less extreme. In addition, there is a positive correlation between rainfall and birth weight in pastoral communities, but no correlation between birth weight and temperature, possibly because pastoralists are mobile and are able to move livestock if conditions are unsatisfactory. These results should be taken with some concessions, as there are many other variables that impact birth weights, such as maternal education, employment, and marital status. Nevertheless, if the researcher’s findings are taken at face value, the increased temperatures and decreased rainfall expected to occur in Kenya and Mali will likely result in lower birth weights, signifying lower crop yields, and higher rates of food insecurity. These farmers will be subject to the unfreedoms of malnourishment and stunted growth from a young age as they are forced to bear the effects of a global crisis they have not contributed to.

Battisti, D. S., & Naylor, R. L. (2009). Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat. Science, 323(5911), 240–244. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1164363

The researchers for this article employed a historical perspective paired with predictions of changes in the climate throughout the 21st century in order to inform an analysis of the potential effects high seasonal averages will have on agriculture and food security. The article had a greater focus on climatic data, but they also investigate past droughts and food instability, like in France and Russia, as a model for the future. The scientists used a scientific synthesis that provided climate prediction models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They then found the difference between the projected seasonal average temperature from the IPCC and historical average temperatures. They found with a high degree of certainty that by the end of the 21st-century average temperature will greatly surpass any averages recorded from 1990-2006. The severity of these impacts greatly, with the Sahel projected to have one of the most extreme differences. This is particularly intriguing since this article encompasses the globe, but it finds that the areas of Western Africa and some of Sub Saharan Africa are under the most stress from extreme heat events. This relates specifically to the other articles, as the areas of interest overlap. Therefore, the Sahel and surrounding areas are the most vulnerable to climate-induced food security due to the future sustained, extreme heat interfering with agriculture. Additionally, it was found that it is unlikely the rest of the world will be able to support these regions with potential surpluses. It is predicted that even middle latitudes will see increases in temperatures substantial enough to reduce yields. Furthermore, there is historical evidence that importing large amounts of grain to feed food insecure populations have destabilizing impacts on global markets and can lead to global food security. As such, as temperatures continue to rise throughout the world and agricultural yields drop, there is the possibility of global food crises, even in less vulnerable countries. The scientists end by entreating people to heed the warning of these IPCC projections and begin to address climate change, in tandem with investing in heat-tolerant plant strain and specialized irrigation systems, especially in underdeveloped areas like the Sahel.

Brown, M. E., Hintermann, B., & Higgins, N. (2009). Markets, Climate Change, and Food Security in West Africa. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(21), 8016–8020. ACS Publications. https://doi.org/10.1021/es901162d

There is evidence that climate change affects food security indirectly in areas of climate change as it causes changes in rain patterns and increased temperature. In this article, the researchers broaden this idea through the inclusion of global markets and the effect climate change has on them in relation to local farmers and buyers in Western Africa. There is also a greater focus on microeconomic and macroeconomic markets, like discussions of supply and demand. The researchers obtained most of their data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and they focused the study on Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The most important sect of data measures the average monthly price of millet per kilogram in the aforementioned countries (the trends are similar in all three countries). It reveals that the price of millet slowly rises starting in January and reaches its peak in July or August and then drops off sharply at the end of the year. The main reason for the phenomenon is the lack of adequate storage for surplus grains in West Africa. Rural farmers are forced to sell their crops in October, November, and December, soon after harvest before they spoil. This results in a sharp increase of supply, leading to low prices. By the summer, farmers have exhausted any remaining surplus and are forced to buy millet, but supply is much lower and most has been imported from other countries. Consequently, prices are substantially higher. In short, farmers sell a food staple at very low prices in the winter because they have no way to store it and are forced to buy the same product at significantly higher prices in the summer. It is clear how this leads to food insecurity, as rural farmers experience a net outflow of money and resources throughout the year.In addition, West Africa still has to navigate a changing climate in the area, and as they import a large proportion of food consumed the impacts climate change has on farmers across the world. If a farmer in Nigeria supplements their diet with American wheat and there is a drought in Kansas, they have to bear part of this burden and may experience greater food security as a consequence. The most challenging part of this facet of food security is that effective climate change mitigation policy may in fact hurt developing countries. To illustrate, agriculture is an energy-intensive activity and if energy becomes more expensive because of carbon taxes or another mitigation technique, crops will become more expensive. Therefore, vulnerable citizens in West Africa will have a harder time supplementing their diets with imported food. The scientists argue that the most effectual way to address food security in West Africa is to increase the access of rural farmers have to agricultural and storage technologies in order to ensure that they are better able to weather instability and that they are more self-sufficient.

Davenport, F., Grace, K., Funk, C., & Shukla, S. (2017). Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors. Global Environmental Change, 46, 72–87. ScienceDirect. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.009

In this paper, the researchers investigate the idea that climate change is causing lower birth weights and stunting, a signifier of malnutrition, but focuses on possible solutions to counteract these negative effects in a way unrelated to the environment. They seek to find whether improvements of socioeconomic factors, chiefly maternal education, and access to electricity can increase average birth weight and stunting even in the face of climatic impacts. The scientists use data from 13 Sub Saharan countries and did different calculations for each, so there are definite differences in results depending on climate, predominant livelihoods, and current level of development. The researchers procured birth weight and stunting data (calculated using child’s height and expected weight at that age) from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS); rates of electricity and maternal education come from country-level trends collected by the World Bank Development Data. Precipitation data came from the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset which estimates precipitation rates from geostationary satellite observations. The rate of precipitation was considered starting 12 months before the child in question was born. Finally, daily maximum temperature data was taken from a gridded data set derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Most of the calculations were done using two equations which were found using historical data and previously established relationships. One involved average birth rates and the other involving rates of stunting, which acted as the dependent variable in the respective equations. Then, the researchers manipulated the independent variables: average rate of precipitation, average days with a maximum temperature over 35℃, level of maternal education, and electricity availability, in varying combinations. Consequently, the researchers were able to determine how changes in the climate affect birth weights and stunting rates and whether or not socioeconomic improvements would be able to negate these effects. The data was also split geographically between countries and economically between livelihoods. Generally, the scientists found that increased temperature and decreased precipitation had small negative impacts of birth weight, but there were limited improvements when socio-economic development was added. On the other hand, warming and drying has a more significant negative effect on stunting rates, but there is more potential that trend could be reversed with socio-economic development. Notably, the improvements garnered from socio-economic changes are more drastic in West Africa, presumably because those countries have a lower base level of development. Ultimately, this paper is principally concerned with early childhood health outcomes, which is clearly something that needs to be addressed. However, it ignores the wider problem of climate change that will continue to worsen if not addressed, leading to more dire childhood health consequences, ones that will definitely not be mitigated by socio-economic development. Therefore, although the researchers came to an interesting conclusion, it would be beneficial to look at this problem in a more holistic manner.